With the quarter-finals of all three European club competitions done and dusted, the picture regarding the destination of two additional places in next season’s Champions League is becoming clearer.
With the Champions League group stage expanding from 32 teams to 36 from the start of 2024-25, additional qualification spots will be handed to the top two nations in the rankings for 2023-24.
Each win in one of the three competitions earns their county two coefficient points, with a draw worth one point. Bonus points are awarded for reaching various stages of each tournament, with each country’s total divided by their number of representatives for 2023-24 to give an average score.
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With four Premier League clubs being dumped out of Europe this week, England’s hopes of having five representatives in next season’s Champions League are hanging by a thread.
Here, we run through the state of play with the European semi-finals now set in stone.
Good harvesting this week my fellow farmers 🤝 🇩🇪
— Mats Hummels (@matshummels) April 19, 2024
ITALY (coefficient score: 19.428)
Still in Europe: Roma, Atalanta, Fiorentina
Italy is mathematically assured of a top-two coefficient finish and a fifth Champions League place for 2024-25, after a productive Thursday for Serie A’s remaining representatives in the Europa League and Europa Conference League.
Roma eliminated Milan from an all-Italian Europa League quarter-final to tee up a meeting with recently crowned Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen, while Atalanta held Liverpool at arm’s length to secure their own place in the last four, where they will face Marseille.
SI VOLAAAAA ✈️✈️✈️
THROUGH TO THE SEMIS! 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯#UEL #GoAtalantaGo ⚫️🔵 pic.twitter.com/wEnOUsVW2U
— Atalanta B.C. (@Atalanta_BC) April 18, 2024
In the Conference League, Fiorentina secured an extra-time win over Viktoria Plzen to remain on course for a potential final meeting with Aston Villa. Club Brugge will be their semi-final opponents.
As things stand, Roma are fifth in the Serie A standings and in pole position to take the extra place in Europe’s premier club competition.
Atalanta are four points behind them in sixth, and Italy could even have six Champions League entrants, should La Dea win the Europa League and finish outside Serie A’s top five.
GERMANY (coefficient score: 17.928)
Still in Europe: Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen
The Bundesliga is almost guaranteed to earn an extra Champions League spot, barring a total wipeout of their three remaining representatives in the semi-finals.
Bayern’s Champions League triumph over Arsenal, coupled with Leverkusen dumping West Ham out of the Europa League, helped pull Germany clear of England in the battle for a top-two coefficient finish.
Dortmund’s dramatic victory over Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, means we could still get a repeat of 2013’s Champions League final, when Bayern beat their Klassiker rivals 2-1 at Wembley Stadium, with Arjen Robben scoring a late winner.
BVB are currently fifth in the Bundesliga table, so they stand to benefit from Germany receiving an additional Champions League place.
From their teams’ combined six semi-final fixtures, Germany only needs two wins, or a win and two draws, to clinch that extra spot.
ENGLAND (coefficient score: 17.375)
Still in Europe: Aston Villa
While Tottenham fans may have had to repress a snigger as Harry Kane and Eric Dier helped Bayern end Arsenal’s Champions League dreams on Wednesday, that result could end up denying Spurs Champions League football.
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The Gunners joined Manchester City, Liverpool and West Ham in going out of Europe in a terrible week for the Premier League, with Conference League favourites Villa now flying the flag alone for England.
Only one of Villa or Tottenham are now likely to compete with Europe’s elite next term, with the battle for fourth place in the Premier League taking on additional importance.
Having started the season with eight teams in Europe, England’s only hope is now for Villa to go all the way while Germany’s three representatives are all handily beaten in their semi-final ties.
FRANCE (coefficient score: 16.083)
Still in Europe: Paris Saint-Germain, Marseille
With Spain officially out of the running, France is the only other nation in with a shout of claiming an extra spot, though that would require both PSG and Marseille to go all the way.
PSG will face Dortmund for a place in the Champions League final after Kylian Mbappe scored twice in Wednesday’s win over Barcelona, while Marseille will take on Atalanta in the Europa League after overcoming Benfica on penalties.
Semi-finals ✅#UCL pic.twitter.com/lhFBmp3M2X
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) April 18, 2024
Both teams must win their respective competitions for France to overhaul Germany and England.
In the unlikely event of them doing so, fourth place in Ligue 1 – which usually brings a place in the Champions League qualifying rounds – would become an automatic spot, with that prize being passed down to fifth.
Lille and Nice are currently fourth and fifth, respectively, so they would be the most likely beneficiaries.
